Note: The following is an edited translation of a commentary from the Chinese-language "Commentaries on International Affairs."
President Donald Trump meets with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, July 25, 2018, in Washington
唐纳德·特朗普总统于2018年7月25日星期三在华盛顿与白宫椭圆形办公室的欧盟委员会主席让 - 克洛德·容克会面
U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker met with reporters at the White House this week to announce they had reached an agreement to work towards zero tariffs, eliminate trade barriers, stop paying subsidies for non-automotive products, and strengthen energy cooperation. And they agreed to a new round of negotiations to resolve the issue of the American steel and aluminum tariffs, and the European retaliatory tariffs.
美国总统唐纳德特朗普和欧盟委员会主席让 - 克洛德·容克本周在白宫会见了记者，宣布他们已达成协议，努力实现零关税，消除贸易壁垒，停止支付非汽车产品补贴，并加强能源合作。他们同意进行新一轮谈判，以解决美国钢铁和铝关税以及欧洲报复性关税问题。
但周三在玫瑰园发布的这一消息有一些明显的问题。第一个是没有时间表，细节或实施本协议的机制。
But there are some glaring issues with this announcement made in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. The first of these is that there are no timetables, fine details, or mechanisms for implementing this agreement.
Second, the idea of eliminating tariffs in cross-Atlantic trade is not new. During the Obama administration, the United States and the European Union proposed eliminating tariffs on more than 97 percent of imported goods as part of the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement. But years later, negotiations on this agreement remain stalled. With only four months to go until the U.S. mid-term elections, how likely is it that the Trump administration has the time and patience to realize this ambitious goal?
其次，消除跨大西洋贸易关税的想法并不新鲜。在奥巴马政府期间，美国和欧盟提议取消超过97％的进口商品的关税，作为拟议的跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系协议的一部分。但多年后，关于这项协议的谈判仍然停滞不前。距离美国中期选举只有四个月的时间，特朗普政府有多大可能有时间和耐心实现这一雄心勃勃的目标？
And third, the European Union is a coalition of 28 member states. The leaders of these countries all need to be brought onboard any final agreement. And each of them has their own position when it comes to the trade frictions with the Americans.
第三，欧盟是由28个成员国组成的联盟。这些国家的领导人都需要加入任何最终协议。当谈到与美国人的贸易摩擦时，他们每个人都有自己的立场。
There's also the question of whether the Europeans can take the Trump administration at its word. More than two months ago in Washington, the United States and China agreed they would stop increasing tariffs and pull back from starting a trade war. But just 10 days later, the White House announced that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on 50 billion U.S. dollars of imports from China. This is why The Guardian called into question President Trump's reliability as a deal maker: "U.S. officials have twice come to agreements with China over their trade dispute only for Trump to reject them and threaten to escalate the dispute."
还有一个问题是，欧洲人是否可以接受特朗普政府的言论。两个多月前，在华盛顿，美国和中国同意停止提高关税并退出贸易战。但就在10天后，白宫宣布将对从中国进口的500亿美元征收25％的关税。这就是为什么“卫报”质疑特朗普总统作为交易制定者的可靠性：“美国官员两次与中国就贸易争端达成协议只是为了让特朗普拒绝他们并威胁要使争端升级。
For all of these reasons, some commentators are viewing this week's announcement with caution, seeing it as more of a short-term ceasefire than a formal armistice. This is a prudent position given that on the same day the deal was announced, some of President Trump's senior advisers believed he was on the verge of escalating the trade war with a 25 percent tariff on nearly 200 billion U.S. dollars of imported automobiles, according to The Washington Post. Chad Brown, an economist with the Obama administration, put the problem bluntly when he said "We could see a tweet in 20 minutes to completely reverse all of this."
由于所有这些原因，一些评论员正在谨慎地看待本周的公告，认为这更像是一场短期停火而不是正式的停战。这是一个审慎的立场，因为在交易宣布的同一天，特朗普总统的一些高级顾问认为他正处于贸易战升级的边缘，对近2000亿美元的进口汽车征收25％的关税。华盛顿邮报。奥巴马政府的经济学家查德•布朗（Chad Brown）直言不讳地说，“我们可以在20分钟内看到推文，彻底扭转所有这一切。”
And President Trump's zero tariff proposal sets a neat political trap for the Europeans: If they reject his face-value offer of zero tariffs, they look protectionist, and President Trump can paint himself as a paragon of free trade. If they agree to zero tariffs during negotiations but fail to deliver on their promise, Trump can use this as leverage in future negotiations.
Rather than being concessionary, the European Union should face the American pressure head on and resolutely counterattack. By yielding to the demands of the Trump administration, they might end up giving encouragement to President Trump's "America First" policy, and in turn paying a higher price
特朗普总统的零关税提案为欧洲人设置了一个整洁的政治陷阱：如果他们拒绝接受零关税的面值，他们看起来就是保护主义，特朗普总统可以把自己描绘成自由贸易的典范。如果他们同意在谈判期间实现零关税但未能履行承诺，特朗普可以在未来的谈判中将其作为杠杆。
欧盟应该面对美国的压力并坚决反击，而不是让步。通过屈服于特朗普政府的要求，他们最终可能会鼓励特朗普总统的“美国第一”政策，并反过来支付更高的价格
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